The FTCR China Consumer Index rose strongly in December, with measures of discretionary spending, economic sentiment and household incomes all improving. This is the second highest reading in 2016 and the best December figure since 2013. Furthermore, our household survey’s forward-looking indicators suggest consumers are increasingly optimistic about the future.
- Consumers said their discretionary spending improved slightly in December compared with both the previous month and the same month last year.
- Our Discretionary Spending Index rose 1.1 points month-on-month and 3 points year-on-year to 76.4.
- Our Discretionary Spending Outlook Index rose 1.9 points month-on-month to 74.3 but was down 0.5 points year-on-year.
- Consumers reported that growth in their household incomes improved on both a sequential and year-on-year basis in December.
- Our Household Income Index rose 2.6 points month-on-month and 3 points year-on-year to 74.9.
- Our Household Income Outlook Index rose to its highest level since February 2015 (76.2), increasing 2 points month-on-month and 2.5 points year-on-year to 76.
- Consumers’ views of the economy were as positive as they have been since May 2015.
- Our Economic Sentiment Index rose 3.9 points from November and 8.2 points over December 2015 to 63.5.
- Consumers were even more upbeat about the economy’s near future: our Economic Outlook Index rose 3.4 points month-on-month and 6.9 points year-on-year to 74.3.
- Consumers reported an increase in their cost of living in December.
- Respondents estimated the average cost of living rose 6.9 per cent year-on-year in December, up from 6.8 per cent the previous month. This is 1.3 percentage points higher than in December 2015.
- They expect cost-of-living growth of 7.1 per cent over the next six months, down from the 7.7 per cent forecast in November.
- Buying sentiment for property, consumer goods and leisure activities improved in December, both month-on-month and year-on-year.
- Our House Buying Sentiment Index was above the 50-point mark for a second straight month, rising 1.6 points from November and 1.5 points year-on-year to 52.8. Our Property Investment Index jumped 4.3 points month-on-month and 7.4 points year-on-year to 48.9.
- Sentiment towards overseas travel improved slightly over November but was weaker year-on-year, with the sub-index recording its lowest December reading since 2012. Sentiment towards domestic travel remained robust: the sub-index rose 2 points month-on-month and 2.9 points year-on-year to 65.1, the highest December reading in the series’ history.
- Our sub-index measuring sentiment towards car purchases hit a nine-month high of 58.6.
- Our A-share Buying Sentiment Index — measuring whether consumers perceive it is a good time to invest in A-shares — rose 2.6 points month-on-month and 1.9 points year-on-year in December.
- Actual stock buying intentions also improved month-on-month but remained lower than in December 2015. While buying sentiment towards wealth management products and P2P financial products weakened in December, consumers expressed sharply increased appetite for insurance products.
The FTCR China consumer survey comprises interviews with 1,000 consumers nationwide. For further details click here.
This report contains the headline data from the consumer survey. The full results, including historical data, are available on our database.
FT Confidential Research is an independent research service from the Financial Times, providing in-depth analysis of and statistical insight into China and Southeast Asia. Our team of researchers in these key markets combine findings from our proprietary surveys with on-the-ground research to provide predictive analysis for investors.