Ukraine stays focused on internal struggles

This has been a bumpy week for Ukraine. An exiled former Russian MP turned Kremlin critic was gunned down in Kiev on Thursday outside a hotel popular with foreign business people. Hours earlier, a huge weapons arsenal about 100km from the front line with Russian-backed separatist forces in the country’s east exploded in a series of massive blasts. Kiev has suggested Russia may be responsible for both; Moscow denied it.

On Wednesday, Ukraine barred Russia’s contestant from the Eurovision Song Contest, which Kiev is hosting in May, on the grounds she had broken Ukrainian law by entering Russian-annexed Crimea from Russia and performing there. Although Russia may have deliberately selected the wheelchair-bound singer who has spoken in support of Crimea’s annexation in order to discomfit Kiev, banning her risks a public relations backlash for Ukraine.

And at the start of the week, the expected disbursal of the next tranche of International Monetary Fund financial aid to Kiev was delayed. The reason seems to be uncertainty over the economic impact of a trade blockade announced by President Petro Poroshenko against Ukraine’s separatist-controlled eastern regions.

These events may be largely unrelated. The motive for the killing of the ex-Russian MP, Denis Voronenkov, is particularly murky. Taken together, however, they point to some broad conclusions.

First, three years after Ukraine’s pro-democracy revolution triggered a quasi-war with Russia, although the macroeconomic situation has stabilised, broader stability in terms of the political and security situation remains elusive. Though Kiev and most of the country outside the eastern conflict zone are very safe, video of an ex-Russian lawmaker lying in a pool of blood outside a luxury hotel tends to undermine that message.

Russia continues to challenge Ukraine at every opportunity. The economic slump caused by Russia’s aggression, and the pain of difficult but necessary reforms demanded by the country’s international partners, has drained political support for the country’s post-revolutionary leaders. With its approval rating in the doldrums, the government coalition is jockeying with populist opposition groups. That means shying away from anything that might risk further domestic unpopularity — such as allowing in a controversial Russian Eurovision contestant, even if doing so might play better with the huge international television audience.

The Kiev government is spending time on constant crisis management and political infighting when it desperately needs to focus on longer-term reforms to boost a nascent economic recovery and attract foreign investment. That bodes poorly for the priority reform projects this year of pensions, healthcare, and agricultural land. This year is the last chance for tricky reforms before the next electoral cycle begins ahead of presidential and parliamentary polls in 2019. Yet the government may face a confidence vote as early as next month, when a year-long moratorium on such a move expires. Even if it survives, valuable time could be wasted.

Despite the enormous obstacles, Ukraine’s modernising government has achieved significant reforms since 2014. But coming months could be decisive in terms of consolidating and advancing those reforms — or seeing them start to unravel. On the basis of recent weeks, the risk of the latter looks real.

neil.buckley@ft.com